A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
