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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd